Current model status

This section provides a live view of the modelling pipeline’s performance and status, sourced directly from the latest validation artefacts and provenance records.

Component Current status Latest evidence Caveat
Stage 1a: AADT model Implemented Local R²: 0.831, Spatial R²: 0.792, N=17412 Estimates traffic where direct counts are unavailable
Stage 2: GLM collision-risk model Implemented Pseudo-R²: 0.347 Interpretable exposure-adjusted baseline
Stage 2: XGBoost collision-risk model Implemented across 5 seeds Mean Pseudo-R²: 0.323, Seeds: [42, 43, 44, 45, 46] Flexible comparison/diagnostic model; weaker interpretability than GLM
Final scored output Implemented 2,167,557 scored links Current scoring grain is one row per road link, not link-year

“These figures describe the latest model artefacts available at documentation render time. They indicate the current analytical state of the exposure-adjusted risk pipeline; they should not be read as operational approval for safety decisions.”