Open Road Risk
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  • Project
    • Project overview
    • Current model status
    • AI-assisted development
  • Literature
    • Literature overview
    • Literature evidence register
    • AI-assisted literature review
    • Literature-pipeline alignment
    • Crash frequency models
    • Exposure and traffic volume
    • Spatial methods and network risk
    • Junctions and conflict structure
    • Severity modelling
    • Validation and metrics
    • Transferability and open data limits
  • Data Sources
    • Overview
    • STATS19 Collisions
    • OS Open Roads
    • AADF Traffic Counts
    • WebTRIS Sensors
    • Network Model GDB
    • OS Terrain 50 (grade)
    • Deprivation (IoD 2025)
  • Methodology
    • Methodology Overview
    • Joining the Datasets
    • Feature Engineering
    • Empirical Bayes Shrinkage
  • Exploratory Data Analysis
    • Collision EDA
    • Collision-Exposure Behaviour
    • Vehicle Mix Analysis
    • Road Curvature
    • Months and Days of Week
    • Traffic Volume EDA
    • OSM Coverage
  • Models
    • Modelling Approach
    • Stage 1a: Traffic Volume
    • Stage 1b: Time-Zone Profiles
    • Stage 2: Collision Risk Model
    • Facility Family Split
    • Model Inventory
  • Investigations
    • Investigations overview
    • KSI atlas diagnostic
    • Staffordshire data quality
    • Temporal descriptors evaluation
    • AADF counted-only filter
    • Rank stability harness
    • Zero-calibration diagnostic
  • Outputs
    • Key figures
    • Top-risk map
    • QGIS GeoPackage (Kaggle)
  • Tools
    • ukgeo — UK Geocoder
  • Future Work

On this page

  • 1 Overview
  • 2 Severity distribution
  • 3 Temporal patterns
    • 3.1 By day of week
    • 3.2 By hour of day
    • 3.3 By month
  • 4 Road context
    • 4.1 Road type and class
    • 4.2 Speed limit
    • 4.3 Urban vs rural and junction context
  • 5 Light conditions
  • 6 Coordinate quality
  • 7 Key observations

Collision EDA — STATS19

Exploratory analysis of STATS19 collision records, including temporal, severity, road-type, and spatial patterns relevant to modelling.
Modified

July 4, 2026

Last updated: 2026-07-04 · Data coverage: 2015–2024.

1 Overview

This page explores the raw STATS19 collision records for the Great Britain study area before any spatial joining or modelling. The goal is to understand the coverage, quality, and structure of the outcome variable.

Note

The sharp drop in 2020–2021 reflects COVID-19 lockdowns reducing traffic and reported collisions. Both years are flagged is_covid = True and treated separately where needed.


2 Severity distribution


3 Temporal patterns

3.1 By day of week

3.2 By hour of day

3.3 By month


4 Road context

4.1 Road type and class

4.2 Speed limit

4.3 Urban vs rural and junction context


5 Light conditions


6 Coordinate quality


7 Key observations

Note

These raw proportions describe the collision dataset, not collision risk. Risk requires dividing by exposure (vehicle-kilometres). Roads with high urban or junction proportions may look dangerous here but score differently after the exposure model is applied in Stage 2.

Open Road Risk

 

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