Open Road Risk
  • Home
  • Project
    • Project overview
    • Current model status
    • AI-assisted development
  • Literature
    • Literature overview
    • Literature evidence register
    • Literature-pipeline alignment
    • Crash frequency models
    • Exposure and traffic volume
    • Spatial methods and network risk
    • Junctions and conflict structure
    • Severity modelling
    • Validation and metrics
    • Transferability and open data limits
  • Data Sources
    • Overview
    • STATS19 Collisions
    • OS Open Roads
    • AADF Traffic Counts
    • WebTRIS Sensors
    • Network Model GDB
    • OS Terrain 50 (grade)
    • Deprivation (IoD 2025)
  • Methodology
    • Methodology Overview
    • Joining the Datasets
    • Feature Engineering
    • Empirical Bayes Shrinkage
  • Exploratory Data Analysis
    • Collision EDA
    • Collision-Exposure Behaviour
    • Vehicle Mix Analysis
    • Road Curvature
    • Months and Days of Week
    • Traffic Volume EDA
    • OSM Coverage
  • Models
    • Modelling Approach
    • Stage 1a: Traffic Volume
    • Stage 1b: Time-Zone Profiles
    • Stage 2: Collision Risk Model
    • Facility Family Split
    • Model Inventory
  • Investigations
    • Investigations overview
    • KSI atlas diagnostic
    • Staffordshire data quality
    • Temporal descriptors evaluation
    • AADF counted-only filter
    • Rank stability harness
    • Zero-calibration diagnostic
  • Outputs
    • Key figures
    • Top-risk map
  • Tools
    • ukgeo — UK Geocoder
  • Future Work

Road risk at a glance

Plain-language figures summarising where collision risk is highest across the Open Road Risk study area.

Figures summarising the main outputs of the risk model, without the modelling detail. The map is exposure-adjusted: it reflects risk given traffic, not simply where the most collisions happen. Full methodology and diagnostics are on the Stage 2 model page.

The map has three views: merged named reporting areas, equal-size 10 km grid cells, and the same grid with reporting-area boundaries.

Make this Notebook Trusted to load map: File -> Trust Notebook

Traffic volume

The map below uses the same geography and controls, but colours areas by median estimated AADT rather than modelled risk.

Make this Notebook Trusted to load map: File -> Trust Notebook

The named-area view uses a merged reporting geography so compact urban authorities remain legible. A small Fenland boundary gap in the source polygons is joined into Cambridgeshire and Peterborough. The grid view uses equal-size 10 km cells and omits cells with fewer than 20 scored links.

Open Road Risk

 

Built with Quarto